70% probability that USDCAD will trend downwards

Based on the last 12 Consumer Confidence events in Japan, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. This will happen if the released value is < 43.3

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Oct 05:00
31 Jul 06:00
29 Jun 06:00
30 May 06:00
02 May 06:00
01 Mar 05:00
31 Jan 05:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).