What to trade around Canada Ivey PMI s.a news event

Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Based on the last 12 Ivey PMI s.a events in Canada, we expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 07 Jan 15:00 if the released value is > 56.8. A price movement of 43 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Nov 15:00
04 May 15:00
06 Mar 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).