What to trade around Canada Balance of Trade news event

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Canada, we expect USDCHF to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect USDCHF to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 06 Dec 13:30 if the released value is > C$-0.7B. A price movement of 48 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Oct 13:30

03 Aug 13:30

07 Mar 13:30

05 Dec 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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