What to trade around United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news event

Based on the last 12 Claimant Count Change events in United Kingdom, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards right now. Based on these past events there is a 77.78% chance of this. We expect USDCAD to trend downwards for the next 4 hours because the released value is > 13.2K. A price movement of 26 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Nov 09:30
16 Oct 09:30
14 Aug 09:30
17 Apr 09:30
21 Mar 09:30
24 Jan 09:30
13 Dec 09:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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